We revisit our scenario analysis and consider the next three phases of the coronavirus crisis
In the first phase, normalization, most of the US and Europe allow employees to return to work, but output remains well below pre-crisis levels. In the second phase, recovery, the economy gradually returns to pre-crisis levels. Net new business formation is positive, and workers made redundant during the lockdown find new positions. In the third, post-crisis phase, we are left with the legacy of the crisis: a world more indebted and less global, yet more digital.